After a fun-filled afternoon on Friday with our market rallying after the US unemployment figures came out, it was a great way to end the week!
The SNP 500 closed down below the critical 700 level as I discussed it could last week. This bodes well if you can short the local stock market. It doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling about our local rally or bounce right now except for one thing: Resources.
The ALSI created a bullish engulfing candle formation at the close on Friday. This gives some impetus to the weak going forward being bullish. There is also positive divergence on the stochastic.
The trouble is that the ALSI is made up of the financials and resources. The financials are being hit pretty hard and so if the resources don't rally hard the ALSI could take a tumble.
The Resources opened fairly negative this morning with DRD gold being a star performer again last week seconded by Anglo Gold and Anglo American. Silver has the potential to trigger a falling wedge formation and therefore suggests further upside in gold this week.
After the gap in DRD however I suspect it may be exhausted. We may see a retest to the old high of 950c before it goes to close the gap at 887c. Be aware that the candle chart is showing a potential double top formation on DRD.
Grindrod, is certainly making a go of it. As we discussed late last week, the chart was looking very oversold. The assessment was to look to buy it at 1126c with a stop loss at 1100c and at worst case 1080c. This is with a view to take a short term trading profit of around 106c and a swing trade profit in equities at say 1303c. Note that this trade is against the overall trend as Grindrod is below its 89 moving average.
Yes and so it happened. The market fell out of bed from 9h45 with a great 200 point drop on the ALSI. I grabbed 160 of them and that's why the delay in this post this morning... I went short at 9h45 and was out at 10h10.
We are holding an investor's club meeting tomorrow night at Wanderer's Sports Club. You're invited to come along. Visit www.wealthskills.co.za for more info.
Our Financials & Industrials index is falling like a hard rock in a big pond. This combined with the fallign resources will cause havoc on our local stock market - at least for the Monday morning session.
Resources seem to be following suit after the Financials heading south. Anglo Gold and DRD seem to be holding out as well as Grindrod. Watch these shares this week. Kumba opened way down today and is probably following a drop in copper prices. This will have an effect on Billiton, Anglo American, Metorex and other copper miners.
Trade well, not often.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
Showing posts with label drd Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label drd Gold. Show all posts
Monday, March 9, 2009
Sunday, February 22, 2009
ALSI & Market Outlook
ALSI & Market Outlook
I just finished downloading the data from Friday's stock market close. What a turn of events. It looked as if the market was going to be depressed and close down badly in the red. The along comes the gold sector and platinum sector which was having none of it.
In essence, the ALSI regained its losses for the day and eventually went right back to close the gap left when it opened in the morning. The gap down was significant. The stock market was red everywhere!
It just so happened that I got just over 100 points around mid morning which was followed by another 200 points late in the afternoon if I had been at my pc. I had a client to meet about a particular strategy he had heard about and wanted to discuss it over with me. I happened to be in Rivonia at the time the trigger happened. Such is life.
It just so happens that looking at the Resources Index, a.k.a the RESI, the market certainly looked to be heading further south. Considering however how the gold and platinum sectors closed off our resources heavy top 40 index swung in the late afternoon.
Many safe haven investors taking to the apparent refuge of gold and other precious metals like platinum with the aim of protecting their capital. Both Anglo Gold and DRD Gold have made new highs as discussed they might last week. Platinum is looking strong to test the R150 resistance if it can break above the old resistance of R145 which it closed on Friday afternoon.
Considering the ALSI end of day chart, there could well be a swing come Monday morning depending on the close of USA on the Dow and SNP. It doesn't look good right now as both of them made new lows. It would be worth a look at the FTSE. We could well look for some confirmation from the movement Monday morning when the FTSE opens.
The ALSI end of day chart does indicate very oversold position with stoch and rsi below 30 and 10 respectfully. Immediate resistance is at the close of 17681 with support at 17160. We could find ourselves challenging 18071 if the open is positive and the market swings bullish.
The low oversold levels on the indicators imply a 200-300 upside in the morning but again lends itself to the sentiment of the US close which was negative. One may like to look at the Asian open to confirm our direction until FTSE opens.
I would consider the LIVE charts as well and seeing as though we closed up on my LIVE charts I conclude that 17426 is 1st level support followed by ultimate support at 17210. 17844 seems a strong resistance level too on the upside.
It certainly warrants waiting for after the open to assess again the market sentiment. Bearing in mind that the end of day chart on the short term indicates a retracement with the medium term still implying probability of downside after a short pull back.
Keep an eye on AngloGold and DRD gold. Anglo American is heading into oversold position as well. and has broken recent support levels. But it may require another 2-3 days before it retraces briefly.
On closer look into DRDGold, the share does look overbought now. It is displaying a well known reversal pattern on a candlestick chart called a Morning Star. It closed on Friday with an upside hammer. There certainlys seems to be strong support at just below 900c.
DRD's old high of around 971c to 989c is set to be the strong resistance. The share's momentum may well fall off here and we may find it having a small retracement back to 692c and find support there again. It is vital to trace the movement in GOLD using the NewGold ETF as a precursor to how DRDgold and other gold derivative shares will perform.
We may only see a slight retracement of 23% to 789c before the momentum in the gold price forces the share onwards and upwards. Likewise with AngloGold. on DRD gold 875c is quite an important support level and would signal that the retracement is in play with potential to move to 789c.
It certainly pays to get access to good training regarding your trading.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za ,
I just finished downloading the data from Friday's stock market close. What a turn of events. It looked as if the market was going to be depressed and close down badly in the red. The along comes the gold sector and platinum sector which was having none of it.
In essence, the ALSI regained its losses for the day and eventually went right back to close the gap left when it opened in the morning. The gap down was significant. The stock market was red everywhere!
It just so happened that I got just over 100 points around mid morning which was followed by another 200 points late in the afternoon if I had been at my pc. I had a client to meet about a particular strategy he had heard about and wanted to discuss it over with me. I happened to be in Rivonia at the time the trigger happened. Such is life.
It just so happens that looking at the Resources Index, a.k.a the RESI, the market certainly looked to be heading further south. Considering however how the gold and platinum sectors closed off our resources heavy top 40 index swung in the late afternoon.
Many safe haven investors taking to the apparent refuge of gold and other precious metals like platinum with the aim of protecting their capital. Both Anglo Gold and DRD Gold have made new highs as discussed they might last week. Platinum is looking strong to test the R150 resistance if it can break above the old resistance of R145 which it closed on Friday afternoon.
Considering the ALSI end of day chart, there could well be a swing come Monday morning depending on the close of USA on the Dow and SNP. It doesn't look good right now as both of them made new lows. It would be worth a look at the FTSE. We could well look for some confirmation from the movement Monday morning when the FTSE opens.
The ALSI end of day chart does indicate very oversold position with stoch and rsi below 30 and 10 respectfully. Immediate resistance is at the close of 17681 with support at 17160. We could find ourselves challenging 18071 if the open is positive and the market swings bullish.
The low oversold levels on the indicators imply a 200-300 upside in the morning but again lends itself to the sentiment of the US close which was negative. One may like to look at the Asian open to confirm our direction until FTSE opens.
I would consider the LIVE charts as well and seeing as though we closed up on my LIVE charts I conclude that 17426 is 1st level support followed by ultimate support at 17210. 17844 seems a strong resistance level too on the upside.
It certainly warrants waiting for after the open to assess again the market sentiment. Bearing in mind that the end of day chart on the short term indicates a retracement with the medium term still implying probability of downside after a short pull back.
Keep an eye on AngloGold and DRD gold. Anglo American is heading into oversold position as well. and has broken recent support levels. But it may require another 2-3 days before it retraces briefly.
On closer look into DRDGold, the share does look overbought now. It is displaying a well known reversal pattern on a candlestick chart called a Morning Star. It closed on Friday with an upside hammer. There certainlys seems to be strong support at just below 900c.
DRD's old high of around 971c to 989c is set to be the strong resistance. The share's momentum may well fall off here and we may find it having a small retracement back to 692c and find support there again. It is vital to trace the movement in GOLD using the NewGold ETF as a precursor to how DRDgold and other gold derivative shares will perform.
We may only see a slight retracement of 23% to 789c before the momentum in the gold price forces the share onwards and upwards. Likewise with AngloGold. on DRD gold 875c is quite an important support level and would signal that the retracement is in play with potential to move to 789c.
It certainly pays to get access to good training regarding your trading.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za ,
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
GOLD ~ The winning sector
Many moons ago I learnt a really powerful yet simple equity methodology for determining the performance of the different sectors against the market. I do this because I want to know where the money is. Whose money you ask?
The Fund Managers and the Institutes money is key to really making decent money in the stock market. One could follow what the fund managers are doing after the fact and buy what they buy. I prefer to pick it up from the market itself. Generally speaking, the fund managers can't dump hundreds of millions on the market all in one day.
After learning this great skill, albeit simple, I am able to track down the Big Daddy money out there. Once I have done that I go over the sectors with a fine tooth comb to find the shares within those sectors that are the best performers somewhat hand-picked to be on the fund managers team. Those left behind after all the slots are taken get a seat on the bench and don't get to score.
The Gold Index signalled a recent buy in the week of the 16th-23rd of January 2009. Some of the gold mining shares have doubled in less than 2 months. Is it time to get in there now? Not likely. Chances are you have missed the boat. Better not to chase it now...
DRD Gold and Anglogold signalled on my Big Daddy Money system in December already. DRDGold triggered around the 2nd week of December at around 435c and is now over 800c. AngloGold has gone from around R200 to over R300 this week.
But I will be waiting to add to my investment positions as there could well be a pull back or retracement before the gold shares move onwards again. But I will be keeping an eye on it like a hawk.
DRD has been the best performer with Anglogold following closely behind. Some less traded shares like Afgold and GBG Gold also have had some really good moves.
Keep an eye out for our next post about the Yield X on the bonds. Do you own a homeloan? Well, as the debt cycle peaks and the interest rate committee begins to waver under the economic pressures of a debt-laden consumer you could bank money as the interest rate drops off.
Look out for that as we develop some more info on that topic.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ http://www.newsweek.co.za/ Check out our NEW ALSI Apprentice!
The Fund Managers and the Institutes money is key to really making decent money in the stock market. One could follow what the fund managers are doing after the fact and buy what they buy. I prefer to pick it up from the market itself. Generally speaking, the fund managers can't dump hundreds of millions on the market all in one day.
After learning this great skill, albeit simple, I am able to track down the Big Daddy money out there. Once I have done that I go over the sectors with a fine tooth comb to find the shares within those sectors that are the best performers somewhat hand-picked to be on the fund managers team. Those left behind after all the slots are taken get a seat on the bench and don't get to score.
The Gold Index signalled a recent buy in the week of the 16th-23rd of January 2009. Some of the gold mining shares have doubled in less than 2 months. Is it time to get in there now? Not likely. Chances are you have missed the boat. Better not to chase it now...
DRD Gold and Anglogold signalled on my Big Daddy Money system in December already. DRDGold triggered around the 2nd week of December at around 435c and is now over 800c. AngloGold has gone from around R200 to over R300 this week.
But I will be waiting to add to my investment positions as there could well be a pull back or retracement before the gold shares move onwards again. But I will be keeping an eye on it like a hawk.
DRD has been the best performer with Anglogold following closely behind. Some less traded shares like Afgold and GBG Gold also have had some really good moves.
Keep an eye out for our next post about the Yield X on the bonds. Do you own a homeloan? Well, as the debt cycle peaks and the interest rate committee begins to waver under the economic pressures of a debt-laden consumer you could bank money as the interest rate drops off.
Look out for that as we develop some more info on that topic.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ http://www.newsweek.co.za/ Check out our NEW ALSI Apprentice!
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