Our trading mentorship has almost run a month now and we had an excellent bullish rally trade opportunity today from 26000 to 26350. A very nice way to end the month of September.
We have also been holding Mr Price, Foschini and Shoprite since the beginning of the month. We have moved out stop loss in to aggressive profit levels to secure profits as the stock markets look to be leading into a wave 4 cycle which is bearish.
We have also been holding gold since $1265 long and now look to ease out of the gold price long position in the short term as it looks top heavy as well. We look to take profits around the $1319 level but certainly if the chart breaks down through $1306 which is a Fibonacci level.
Our stock market outlook is that the market is overbought and top heavy. This week displays a final push to Fibonnacci extension targets as unit trust funds etc all trade higher in the market to increase their quarterly results before any sell off can be seriously considered in the short term.
We are firmly bullish in the long term. There is at least 5 years more of upward movement in the global markets but not all in a straight line. As long as the 89MA remains support the recession is over and a double dip is unlikely.
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Stock Market Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ http://www.wealthskills.co.za/
Showing posts with label Stock Markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Markets. Show all posts
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Friday, November 27, 2009
Stock Market Update
Stock Market Updates:
Our recent stock market newsletter, sent 23rd November, stated that the markets were very top heavy, meaning they were at resistance levels. We advised that investors should remain out of the stock market until further notice.
"If investors or traders are holding positions that they should either look to exit at these resistance levels (traders)or be prepared to hold through the correction (investors) and then add to their holdings."
The Shanghai was the early indicator of the stock market weakness at resistance levels. The DAX then followed by making a lower top or lower high. These signals need to be heeded.
Then we heard about the Dubai World debt crisis. It only takes a small bit of negative news to discount the current stock market perceptions and create a sell off that we have noticed using technical analysis on the charts.
The interesting thing about the Dubai crisis is that the news is old. Maybe not to the public and the man in the street but the investors and bankers all knew about the announcement to come at least a few days before it was announced. Conspiracy? Yes, somewhat. Read the charts. Ask some questions!
Why didn't the global markets make new highs this week? The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the DAX, Shanghai, FTSE 100 and even the local All Share Index in South Africa could not bring themselves to make new highs and break the resistance. The stock markets couldn't break this level as bad news was coming. The smart money was preparing to move out of the markets temporarily. They gave you and I, the little guy, warning for about 5 days.
The next question is, "Did you heed the warning?" Many people trying to invest and trade the stock markets aren't able to handle the emotional journey. They suffer from the emotional pull of the stock markets with fear after a sell off or correction or even recession with the greed that the stock markets will always climb higher. TIP: The stock markets never go up or down in a straight line! They always experience cycles.
How do stock market cycles work?
You get small micro cycles which people trade intra-day or in very short term periods of 1-3 days. You get swing cycles otherwise known as swing trades which can last from 3 days to 3 or 4 weeks. You also get minor cycles which can last for 3 weeks to around 3 months, sometimes extended through to 6 or even 9 months. The major cycles are those we see in the stock market as we go from stock market boom to stock market bust! Which time frame do you want to play in?
I teach people to take advantage of any one of these time frames. Different people enable different choices and needs and ability. some people can handle the daily emotional ebb and flow of intra-day trading... it's only a select few that can actually make a success of short term trading in the intraday arena. Perhaps as few as 2% of people can actually handle this form of trading.
The next type of person is a short term trader that can take trades from 1-3 days and also require especially strong emotional and mental discipline. So, 90% of the reason you will make money or loss it will be down to your personal psychology. About another 3% of people can handle this type of stock market trading.
The easier time frame to be involved in would be the swing trade! This stock market cycle is much easier on the energy, mental and emotional discipline as well as time required to short term trade. Many more people are able to take advantage of this stock market cycle also called a swing trade. It does take some practice as well as much skill in chart analysis. This can be learnt.
The simplest time frame is that of the investor or a major stock market cycle. We've just entered into the next 5-year boom cycle on the stock market and you could simply buy good shares in good sectors and leave them for 4 and a half years. My only TIP would be that you ensure that the sector and shares remain above the 89-day moving average. Do that and you can get good returns on average.
However, if you want better than average returns, you would need to shorten your stock market cycle and focus more on the swing trades to make money as the different sectors grow and pull back. Each time, you are making money in the growth cycle and exit at resistance levels. Then invest again in sectors that are performing to compound your portfolio growth.
Take the time to learn stock market cycles. Then train your emotions to be patient for entries and resilience to exit at resistance. Repeat!
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
Visit Aurora Global Markets for Global trading platform in equities, foreign exchange, commodities, precious metals and interest rates.
Our recent stock market newsletter, sent 23rd November, stated that the markets were very top heavy, meaning they were at resistance levels. We advised that investors should remain out of the stock market until further notice.
"If investors or traders are holding positions that they should either look to exit at these resistance levels (traders)or be prepared to hold through the correction (investors) and then add to their holdings."
The Shanghai was the early indicator of the stock market weakness at resistance levels. The DAX then followed by making a lower top or lower high. These signals need to be heeded.
Then we heard about the Dubai World debt crisis. It only takes a small bit of negative news to discount the current stock market perceptions and create a sell off that we have noticed using technical analysis on the charts.
The interesting thing about the Dubai crisis is that the news is old. Maybe not to the public and the man in the street but the investors and bankers all knew about the announcement to come at least a few days before it was announced. Conspiracy? Yes, somewhat. Read the charts. Ask some questions!
Why didn't the global markets make new highs this week? The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the DAX, Shanghai, FTSE 100 and even the local All Share Index in South Africa could not bring themselves to make new highs and break the resistance. The stock markets couldn't break this level as bad news was coming. The smart money was preparing to move out of the markets temporarily. They gave you and I, the little guy, warning for about 5 days.
The next question is, "Did you heed the warning?" Many people trying to invest and trade the stock markets aren't able to handle the emotional journey. They suffer from the emotional pull of the stock markets with fear after a sell off or correction or even recession with the greed that the stock markets will always climb higher. TIP: The stock markets never go up or down in a straight line! They always experience cycles.
How do stock market cycles work?
You get small micro cycles which people trade intra-day or in very short term periods of 1-3 days. You get swing cycles otherwise known as swing trades which can last from 3 days to 3 or 4 weeks. You also get minor cycles which can last for 3 weeks to around 3 months, sometimes extended through to 6 or even 9 months. The major cycles are those we see in the stock market as we go from stock market boom to stock market bust! Which time frame do you want to play in?
I teach people to take advantage of any one of these time frames. Different people enable different choices and needs and ability. some people can handle the daily emotional ebb and flow of intra-day trading... it's only a select few that can actually make a success of short term trading in the intraday arena. Perhaps as few as 2% of people can actually handle this form of trading.
The next type of person is a short term trader that can take trades from 1-3 days and also require especially strong emotional and mental discipline. So, 90% of the reason you will make money or loss it will be down to your personal psychology. About another 3% of people can handle this type of stock market trading.
The easier time frame to be involved in would be the swing trade! This stock market cycle is much easier on the energy, mental and emotional discipline as well as time required to short term trade. Many more people are able to take advantage of this stock market cycle also called a swing trade. It does take some practice as well as much skill in chart analysis. This can be learnt.
The simplest time frame is that of the investor or a major stock market cycle. We've just entered into the next 5-year boom cycle on the stock market and you could simply buy good shares in good sectors and leave them for 4 and a half years. My only TIP would be that you ensure that the sector and shares remain above the 89-day moving average. Do that and you can get good returns on average.
However, if you want better than average returns, you would need to shorten your stock market cycle and focus more on the swing trades to make money as the different sectors grow and pull back. Each time, you are making money in the growth cycle and exit at resistance levels. Then invest again in sectors that are performing to compound your portfolio growth.
Take the time to learn stock market cycles. Then train your emotions to be patient for entries and resilience to exit at resistance. Repeat!
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
Visit Aurora Global Markets for Global trading platform in equities, foreign exchange, commodities, precious metals and interest rates.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Stock Market Bull Rages
It's been a while after my blog break. I was focusing on helping to put together a stock market course for people interested in learning how to do this actively. I guess that's why you found this blog... To search and seek out more knowledge about investing!
Well, the Integrated Trading System we have been working on includes global fundamentals and combines them with local stock market sectors and charts them so that technical analysis on a sector and share level is quite unique. We get a very high hit rate on our stock trading using this integrated stock market course approach.
I have also been spending a good deal of time overhauling my other business venture's website: beekeeping equipment supplies! That's right. I supply any beekeeper with the equipment they need to get started and grow their golden opportunity. The site hadn't been updated for a good long time and this month it got tagged.
The beautiful thing about beekeeping is that it can be the ultimate alternative investment opportunity. You see, it's a low cost, low capital setup and the bees do pretty much all the work... It's a sweet deal with all that honey and all. Bees are great.
I reworked all of the keywords and the links within the site and even added a new beginner beekeeping course. If you looking for something alternative for investing beekeeping could be it.
This week th emarket had a great rally. A fantastic turn yesterday on the ALSI 60 min chart gave an entry long at 19600 and after the gap up this morning gave 500 pts for the taking. That's the total weekly quota I set myself in less than 48 hours.
The Anglo American trade also triggered long from 19200 yesterday and closed today at 20800 at resistance there. Anglogold Ashanti gave a sinister short term trade this morning at 31500 to 29500 for a decent day's work.
Our integrated Stock Trading approach warned us that last week's sell of was a pullback buy opportunity and we looked to buy shares like Old mutual, Aspen and Sasol amongst the short list which produced a massive 10% on average across the portfolio in just 2 days! DO you agree that this is profits worthy of short term trading?
After today the Johannesburg stock market has once again resounded it's bullish rage and charged in a red-eyed flurry to break resistance levels confirming what we have been saying for months now: The bear market is over. The bulls are preparing to charge again. Buy on pullbacks unless critical support levels are broken on global fundamental charts!!!
Well, it's really good to be back!
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
Well, the Integrated Trading System we have been working on includes global fundamentals and combines them with local stock market sectors and charts them so that technical analysis on a sector and share level is quite unique. We get a very high hit rate on our stock trading using this integrated stock market course approach.
I have also been spending a good deal of time overhauling my other business venture's website: beekeeping equipment supplies! That's right. I supply any beekeeper with the equipment they need to get started and grow their golden opportunity. The site hadn't been updated for a good long time and this month it got tagged.
The beautiful thing about beekeeping is that it can be the ultimate alternative investment opportunity. You see, it's a low cost, low capital setup and the bees do pretty much all the work... It's a sweet deal with all that honey and all. Bees are great.
I reworked all of the keywords and the links within the site and even added a new beginner beekeeping course. If you looking for something alternative for investing beekeeping could be it.
This week th emarket had a great rally. A fantastic turn yesterday on the ALSI 60 min chart gave an entry long at 19600 and after the gap up this morning gave 500 pts for the taking. That's the total weekly quota I set myself in less than 48 hours.
The Anglo American trade also triggered long from 19200 yesterday and closed today at 20800 at resistance there. Anglogold Ashanti gave a sinister short term trade this morning at 31500 to 29500 for a decent day's work.
Our integrated Stock Trading approach warned us that last week's sell of was a pullback buy opportunity and we looked to buy shares like Old mutual, Aspen and Sasol amongst the short list which produced a massive 10% on average across the portfolio in just 2 days! DO you agree that this is profits worthy of short term trading?
After today the Johannesburg stock market has once again resounded it's bullish rage and charged in a red-eyed flurry to break resistance levels confirming what we have been saying for months now: The bear market is over. The bulls are preparing to charge again. Buy on pullbacks unless critical support levels are broken on global fundamental charts!!!
Well, it's really good to be back!
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Another Alsi 40 trade and market run
What a great day on the JSE!!
(I have neglected to post for a week and I owe my apologies. I'm working on a personal mentorship programme for people interested in learning from the very basic investment level to advanced day trading involving futures and ALSI which will take place over three months. Drop me a line if you have some ideas on this!)
The stock market had run so hard over the last 10 days that it was time for it to take a breather. Tuesday and most of today constituted that breather in the short term.
Besides the short trade from this morning which I missed as I was attending to a large beekeeping goods order. I also run a full time beekeeping equipment supply business. While I was getting my weekly prescription of manual labour packing out the order of bee hives, beeswax and queen excluders I was not at my computer.
There was a grand 200 odd pts trading there for the taking this morning in the ALSI 40 short trade. Then the market started to move sideways for a couple of hours.
So, as I worked on my personal investing & trading mentorship programme, I kept a beady eye on the ALSI. I noticed a swing change and challenge of the 89e happened but failed. The moving average worked as support confirmed by the stochastic. Check 1 confirmed!
An hour or so later I look again and there it is! The signal to go long on the ALL Share Top 40! Around 14h30 it gave the signal with the best entry price being around 19300 but waiting for one more confirmation meant watching with baited breath until 19360 with a stop at 19330.
I went long after 15h20 and then added again about 15 min later. This price was around 19410. My target was 19535 which was a resistance level during the live chart yesterday. The SNP500 and Dow Futures were up stronger and our ALSI took off. It wasn't long and my take protif was hit... in fact it was less than 20 min and I was out of the trade.
The trade still went on to 19670 odd after that. This would've added an additional 100 odd pts to my total for the day but I ain't complaining! Besides by adding to the position as it went up I effectively doubled some of the points I did make due to the additional leverage I was using... In essence I got like an extra 80 pts when I added more contracts to the position.
Good trade nonetheless! And the market closed quite well considering its opening...
Financial, Trading Stocks & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
(I have neglected to post for a week and I owe my apologies. I'm working on a personal mentorship programme for people interested in learning from the very basic investment level to advanced day trading involving futures and ALSI which will take place over three months. Drop me a line if you have some ideas on this!)
The stock market had run so hard over the last 10 days that it was time for it to take a breather. Tuesday and most of today constituted that breather in the short term.
Besides the short trade from this morning which I missed as I was attending to a large beekeeping goods order. I also run a full time beekeeping equipment supply business. While I was getting my weekly prescription of manual labour packing out the order of bee hives, beeswax and queen excluders I was not at my computer.
There was a grand 200 odd pts trading there for the taking this morning in the ALSI 40 short trade. Then the market started to move sideways for a couple of hours.
So, as I worked on my personal investing & trading mentorship programme, I kept a beady eye on the ALSI. I noticed a swing change and challenge of the 89e happened but failed. The moving average worked as support confirmed by the stochastic. Check 1 confirmed!
An hour or so later I look again and there it is! The signal to go long on the ALL Share Top 40! Around 14h30 it gave the signal with the best entry price being around 19300 but waiting for one more confirmation meant watching with baited breath until 19360 with a stop at 19330.
I went long after 15h20 and then added again about 15 min later. This price was around 19410. My target was 19535 which was a resistance level during the live chart yesterday. The SNP500 and Dow Futures were up stronger and our ALSI took off. It wasn't long and my take protif was hit... in fact it was less than 20 min and I was out of the trade.
The trade still went on to 19670 odd after that. This would've added an additional 100 odd pts to my total for the day but I ain't complaining! Besides by adding to the position as it went up I effectively doubled some of the points I did make due to the additional leverage I was using... In essence I got like an extra 80 pts when I added more contracts to the position.
Good trade nonetheless! And the market closed quite well considering its opening...
Financial, Trading Stocks & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
ALSI Update and Trade
Mixed morning ALSI Session
It took a while and much discipline to wait for this morning's ALSI trade.After waiting 2 hours for a set up that gave me a signal on my strategy, it finally presented itself.
We went long at 10h35 at 16518 level and closed for almost 100 points as the ALSI went to the top level of our morning range. The range was sitting between 16500 and 16600 for quite a while. It took the positive opening of the FTSE as well as support from strong trading on the SNP and DOW as well to push our stock market to the upside.
Overall market outlook for today is that we may see a pullback again in DRD GOLD which would be mainly fuelled by the gap it left at 887c. In addition to this possible downside also consider that there is a double-top setting up at 950c with a neckline at 767c which gives us a 180c (estimated) target to the downside if the neckline is broken.
Once again, my recommendation in this instance is to keep track of gold and silver. One can refer especially to the New Gold ETF in order to analyse the chart for a view on gold's position.
Grindrod has defied all the stock markets odds and went positive from our call at 1126c last week we have seen it go to 1220c which is not far from our 106c target. In essence, this amount does warrant closing if you are edgy about the market today. Considering the move by the FTSE after it's open one may speculate that JSE will look to the upside. One would do well to consider that a sell on Grindrod today could be a fairly good move considering the overall market sentiment is in negative territory.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.alsiapprentice.co.za
It took a while and much discipline to wait for this morning's ALSI trade.After waiting 2 hours for a set up that gave me a signal on my strategy, it finally presented itself.
We went long at 10h35 at 16518 level and closed for almost 100 points as the ALSI went to the top level of our morning range. The range was sitting between 16500 and 16600 for quite a while. It took the positive opening of the FTSE as well as support from strong trading on the SNP and DOW as well to push our stock market to the upside.
Overall market outlook for today is that we may see a pullback again in DRD GOLD which would be mainly fuelled by the gap it left at 887c. In addition to this possible downside also consider that there is a double-top setting up at 950c with a neckline at 767c which gives us a 180c (estimated) target to the downside if the neckline is broken.
Once again, my recommendation in this instance is to keep track of gold and silver. One can refer especially to the New Gold ETF in order to analyse the chart for a view on gold's position.
Grindrod has defied all the stock markets odds and went positive from our call at 1126c last week we have seen it go to 1220c which is not far from our 106c target. In essence, this amount does warrant closing if you are edgy about the market today. Considering the move by the FTSE after it's open one may speculate that JSE will look to the upside. One would do well to consider that a sell on Grindrod today could be a fairly good move considering the overall market sentiment is in negative territory.
To give you an idea of the short term trade on GND last week this is how it reads:
- We call a long end of last week to enter at 1126c in the morning wih a stop loss level set at 1100c straight but utmost stop loss of 1080c due to the overall negativity of the market on Friday morning's open.
- Based on the price of the share we would calculate that we would trade with 30 contracts which gives us an exposure to 3000 shares for only 15% of the capital required, if you decided to trade the shares instead of using single stock futures to trade.
- So, if a contract price is R120 per 100 shares (there are 100 shares in each contract) I would have used only R3 600 plus brokerage in order to purchase 3000 x R11.26 = R33 780 worth of shares.
- I sell my Grindrod shares at R12.20 which gives me a gross profit of 94c which is the same as if you had bought the shares.
- We take the 3000 shares x 94c = R2 820 gross profit less brokerage of about R600 in total (estimated at higher end).
- I make R2 820 using R3 600 which is 78% return.
- As a share trader or someone using shares to trade on the short term you would have used R33 780 to make R2820 nett.
- That is equivalent to just over 8% using the full capital instead of leveraging your capital.
Moral of the story? Learn how to trade with your capital and make it stretch using leverage!
BUT IT'S RISKY!! Ask the right questions! If Grindrod went to 1100c and we both had to close the trade due to the stop loss kicking in, what would we have both lost?
- In your example, the share lost 26c from 1126c to 1100c. Right? Take your 3000 shares x -26c = -R780 (loss) plus your transaction costs ie brokerage.
- In my example, the futures contract lost 26c as well. Take my 3000 shares or 30 contracts x -26c = -R780 (loss) plus my transaction costs.
- What's the difference? Not much! Right? Yes, I am!
- Is there more risk in trading futures?
- NOPE!
The risk only comes in when you overexpose yourself. If you are not aware of how leverage and margin works then you could get yourself into trouble. One should never, in general terms, leverage more than three times your portfolio size.
If your portfolio size if R50 000 you shouldn't leverage your trades to a value of more than R150 000. Effectively, you are controlling your leverage by keeping the margin you put on the table low.
You see, you could get leverage of 10 times on your account. This means that with R50 000 in your portfolio you could trade up to R500 000 worth of shares using a single stock futures. Don't go there...
Instead, come learn how to trade ALSI, Futures, Forex with us.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.alsiapprentice.co.za
Monday, March 9, 2009
Alsi & Market update
After a fun-filled afternoon on Friday with our market rallying after the US unemployment figures came out, it was a great way to end the week!
The SNP 500 closed down below the critical 700 level as I discussed it could last week. This bodes well if you can short the local stock market. It doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling about our local rally or bounce right now except for one thing: Resources.
The ALSI created a bullish engulfing candle formation at the close on Friday. This gives some impetus to the weak going forward being bullish. There is also positive divergence on the stochastic.
The trouble is that the ALSI is made up of the financials and resources. The financials are being hit pretty hard and so if the resources don't rally hard the ALSI could take a tumble.
The Resources opened fairly negative this morning with DRD gold being a star performer again last week seconded by Anglo Gold and Anglo American. Silver has the potential to trigger a falling wedge formation and therefore suggests further upside in gold this week.
After the gap in DRD however I suspect it may be exhausted. We may see a retest to the old high of 950c before it goes to close the gap at 887c. Be aware that the candle chart is showing a potential double top formation on DRD.
Grindrod, is certainly making a go of it. As we discussed late last week, the chart was looking very oversold. The assessment was to look to buy it at 1126c with a stop loss at 1100c and at worst case 1080c. This is with a view to take a short term trading profit of around 106c and a swing trade profit in equities at say 1303c. Note that this trade is against the overall trend as Grindrod is below its 89 moving average.
Yes and so it happened. The market fell out of bed from 9h45 with a great 200 point drop on the ALSI. I grabbed 160 of them and that's why the delay in this post this morning... I went short at 9h45 and was out at 10h10.
We are holding an investor's club meeting tomorrow night at Wanderer's Sports Club. You're invited to come along. Visit www.wealthskills.co.za for more info.
Our Financials & Industrials index is falling like a hard rock in a big pond. This combined with the fallign resources will cause havoc on our local stock market - at least for the Monday morning session.
Resources seem to be following suit after the Financials heading south. Anglo Gold and DRD seem to be holding out as well as Grindrod. Watch these shares this week. Kumba opened way down today and is probably following a drop in copper prices. This will have an effect on Billiton, Anglo American, Metorex and other copper miners.
Trade well, not often.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
The SNP 500 closed down below the critical 700 level as I discussed it could last week. This bodes well if you can short the local stock market. It doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling about our local rally or bounce right now except for one thing: Resources.
The ALSI created a bullish engulfing candle formation at the close on Friday. This gives some impetus to the weak going forward being bullish. There is also positive divergence on the stochastic.
The trouble is that the ALSI is made up of the financials and resources. The financials are being hit pretty hard and so if the resources don't rally hard the ALSI could take a tumble.
The Resources opened fairly negative this morning with DRD gold being a star performer again last week seconded by Anglo Gold and Anglo American. Silver has the potential to trigger a falling wedge formation and therefore suggests further upside in gold this week.
After the gap in DRD however I suspect it may be exhausted. We may see a retest to the old high of 950c before it goes to close the gap at 887c. Be aware that the candle chart is showing a potential double top formation on DRD.
Grindrod, is certainly making a go of it. As we discussed late last week, the chart was looking very oversold. The assessment was to look to buy it at 1126c with a stop loss at 1100c and at worst case 1080c. This is with a view to take a short term trading profit of around 106c and a swing trade profit in equities at say 1303c. Note that this trade is against the overall trend as Grindrod is below its 89 moving average.
Yes and so it happened. The market fell out of bed from 9h45 with a great 200 point drop on the ALSI. I grabbed 160 of them and that's why the delay in this post this morning... I went short at 9h45 and was out at 10h10.
We are holding an investor's club meeting tomorrow night at Wanderer's Sports Club. You're invited to come along. Visit www.wealthskills.co.za for more info.
Our Financials & Industrials index is falling like a hard rock in a big pond. This combined with the fallign resources will cause havoc on our local stock market - at least for the Monday morning session.
Resources seem to be following suit after the Financials heading south. Anglo Gold and DRD seem to be holding out as well as Grindrod. Watch these shares this week. Kumba opened way down today and is probably following a drop in copper prices. This will have an effect on Billiton, Anglo American, Metorex and other copper miners.
Trade well, not often.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
ALSI Top 40 is Tops today!
The ALSI Update
What a fantastic day on the ALSI. I wasn't able to enter the trade on the ALSI at the open and hence saw the index run away from me for most of the morning session. The support of 16071 held and played its part perfectly.
The Fibonacci also confirmed the support with it being at the level of 161% extension to the downside from the previous high end of day. The other short term indicators also confirmed that the market was very oversold on the 60 min as well as end of day.
So, patiently I wait for my entry trigger with support of 16060 as stop loss main. My live chart's main support is 16125 with a resistance level of 16681. The 60 min has told me I can go in but the 15 min chart has jumped the gun and doesn't give an entry until 11:00.
Go long at 16618 and close it at 16763. Swing the trade to the downside from 16737 in a short trade to close 16557. This trade is followed by another long at around 15h35 at 16595 to close out at 16685. That is business done for the day.
In total we are talking 145 +180 + 90 points which equals 415 for the day!
That makes up 80% of my week's target in a single day. In a case like this it's best to go play golf tomorrow.
And the overall trend was certainly weak and the retracement or bounce in the market was expected this week as discussed in my newsletter. The newsletter is available by visiting Investor Newsletter which is a Free weekly Market Outlook.
Pretty much all of the sectors were screaming for a bounce otherwise known as a retracement after a move into an extreme situation. Resources, Financial & Industrials, as well as the General Retailers all were primed to do the same thing. The set up was ready and wound. It just needed to be released.
What was going to have the effect of releasing the hounds of the bounce? It could well do with the Chinese Rescue Package coming out later this week. With the Chinese economy being resuscitated it could be the driver the commodities need in order to rally for an upswing over a few weeks, perhaps days but it would be short term.
Our call on the Anglo American trade in our investor newsletter and on the blog earlier this week gave us a late entry yesterday afternoon but at the lastest for end of day buyers to get in first thing this morning. Our entry was yesterday afternoon at R136 with the view to take between 8-10%. This is the structure of my trading plan. I do suspect that the swing could be carried forward until Friday unless the US closes down before then.
So Anglo American pretty much met my trading plan target when it hit R147 and some change intraday. I also use LIVE charts to time entries as well as exits from the market.
Both Kumba and Implats were on our radar as well this week. But have you seen the drop in Grindrod? over 20% in this week alone. It is usually one of my shares to follow. This time round it left me behind. I will ensure that I am looking for the retracement there as well. When it moves it goes for quite a distance before momentum is lost.
Good trading today. Do you want to learn more? Come on the ALSI Apprentice programme.
The real question to be tackled is, whether this rally could be the market turn around point for the stock markets going foward? Some work needs to be done on this topic. Catch you next time...
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ http://www.newsweek.co.za
What a fantastic day on the ALSI. I wasn't able to enter the trade on the ALSI at the open and hence saw the index run away from me for most of the morning session. The support of 16071 held and played its part perfectly.
The Fibonacci also confirmed the support with it being at the level of 161% extension to the downside from the previous high end of day. The other short term indicators also confirmed that the market was very oversold on the 60 min as well as end of day.
So, patiently I wait for my entry trigger with support of 16060 as stop loss main. My live chart's main support is 16125 with a resistance level of 16681. The 60 min has told me I can go in but the 15 min chart has jumped the gun and doesn't give an entry until 11:00.
Go long at 16618 and close it at 16763. Swing the trade to the downside from 16737 in a short trade to close 16557. This trade is followed by another long at around 15h35 at 16595 to close out at 16685. That is business done for the day.
In total we are talking 145 +180 + 90 points which equals 415 for the day!
That makes up 80% of my week's target in a single day. In a case like this it's best to go play golf tomorrow.
And the overall trend was certainly weak and the retracement or bounce in the market was expected this week as discussed in my newsletter. The newsletter is available by visiting Investor Newsletter which is a Free weekly Market Outlook.
Pretty much all of the sectors were screaming for a bounce otherwise known as a retracement after a move into an extreme situation. Resources, Financial & Industrials, as well as the General Retailers all were primed to do the same thing. The set up was ready and wound. It just needed to be released.
What was going to have the effect of releasing the hounds of the bounce? It could well do with the Chinese Rescue Package coming out later this week. With the Chinese economy being resuscitated it could be the driver the commodities need in order to rally for an upswing over a few weeks, perhaps days but it would be short term.
Our call on the Anglo American trade in our investor newsletter and on the blog earlier this week gave us a late entry yesterday afternoon but at the lastest for end of day buyers to get in first thing this morning. Our entry was yesterday afternoon at R136 with the view to take between 8-10%. This is the structure of my trading plan. I do suspect that the swing could be carried forward until Friday unless the US closes down before then.
So Anglo American pretty much met my trading plan target when it hit R147 and some change intraday. I also use LIVE charts to time entries as well as exits from the market.
Both Kumba and Implats were on our radar as well this week. But have you seen the drop in Grindrod? over 20% in this week alone. It is usually one of my shares to follow. This time round it left me behind. I will ensure that I am looking for the retracement there as well. When it moves it goes for quite a distance before momentum is lost.
Good trading today. Do you want to learn more? Come on the ALSI Apprentice programme.
The real question to be tackled is, whether this rally could be the market turn around point for the stock markets going foward? Some work needs to be done on this topic. Catch you next time...
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ http://www.newsweek.co.za
Sunday, February 22, 2009
ALSI & Market Outlook
ALSI & Market Outlook
I just finished downloading the data from Friday's stock market close. What a turn of events. It looked as if the market was going to be depressed and close down badly in the red. The along comes the gold sector and platinum sector which was having none of it.
In essence, the ALSI regained its losses for the day and eventually went right back to close the gap left when it opened in the morning. The gap down was significant. The stock market was red everywhere!
It just so happened that I got just over 100 points around mid morning which was followed by another 200 points late in the afternoon if I had been at my pc. I had a client to meet about a particular strategy he had heard about and wanted to discuss it over with me. I happened to be in Rivonia at the time the trigger happened. Such is life.
It just so happens that looking at the Resources Index, a.k.a the RESI, the market certainly looked to be heading further south. Considering however how the gold and platinum sectors closed off our resources heavy top 40 index swung in the late afternoon.
Many safe haven investors taking to the apparent refuge of gold and other precious metals like platinum with the aim of protecting their capital. Both Anglo Gold and DRD Gold have made new highs as discussed they might last week. Platinum is looking strong to test the R150 resistance if it can break above the old resistance of R145 which it closed on Friday afternoon.
Considering the ALSI end of day chart, there could well be a swing come Monday morning depending on the close of USA on the Dow and SNP. It doesn't look good right now as both of them made new lows. It would be worth a look at the FTSE. We could well look for some confirmation from the movement Monday morning when the FTSE opens.
The ALSI end of day chart does indicate very oversold position with stoch and rsi below 30 and 10 respectfully. Immediate resistance is at the close of 17681 with support at 17160. We could find ourselves challenging 18071 if the open is positive and the market swings bullish.
The low oversold levels on the indicators imply a 200-300 upside in the morning but again lends itself to the sentiment of the US close which was negative. One may like to look at the Asian open to confirm our direction until FTSE opens.
I would consider the LIVE charts as well and seeing as though we closed up on my LIVE charts I conclude that 17426 is 1st level support followed by ultimate support at 17210. 17844 seems a strong resistance level too on the upside.
It certainly warrants waiting for after the open to assess again the market sentiment. Bearing in mind that the end of day chart on the short term indicates a retracement with the medium term still implying probability of downside after a short pull back.
Keep an eye on AngloGold and DRD gold. Anglo American is heading into oversold position as well. and has broken recent support levels. But it may require another 2-3 days before it retraces briefly.
On closer look into DRDGold, the share does look overbought now. It is displaying a well known reversal pattern on a candlestick chart called a Morning Star. It closed on Friday with an upside hammer. There certainlys seems to be strong support at just below 900c.
DRD's old high of around 971c to 989c is set to be the strong resistance. The share's momentum may well fall off here and we may find it having a small retracement back to 692c and find support there again. It is vital to trace the movement in GOLD using the NewGold ETF as a precursor to how DRDgold and other gold derivative shares will perform.
We may only see a slight retracement of 23% to 789c before the momentum in the gold price forces the share onwards and upwards. Likewise with AngloGold. on DRD gold 875c is quite an important support level and would signal that the retracement is in play with potential to move to 789c.
It certainly pays to get access to good training regarding your trading.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za ,
I just finished downloading the data from Friday's stock market close. What a turn of events. It looked as if the market was going to be depressed and close down badly in the red. The along comes the gold sector and platinum sector which was having none of it.
In essence, the ALSI regained its losses for the day and eventually went right back to close the gap left when it opened in the morning. The gap down was significant. The stock market was red everywhere!
It just so happened that I got just over 100 points around mid morning which was followed by another 200 points late in the afternoon if I had been at my pc. I had a client to meet about a particular strategy he had heard about and wanted to discuss it over with me. I happened to be in Rivonia at the time the trigger happened. Such is life.
It just so happens that looking at the Resources Index, a.k.a the RESI, the market certainly looked to be heading further south. Considering however how the gold and platinum sectors closed off our resources heavy top 40 index swung in the late afternoon.
Many safe haven investors taking to the apparent refuge of gold and other precious metals like platinum with the aim of protecting their capital. Both Anglo Gold and DRD Gold have made new highs as discussed they might last week. Platinum is looking strong to test the R150 resistance if it can break above the old resistance of R145 which it closed on Friday afternoon.
Considering the ALSI end of day chart, there could well be a swing come Monday morning depending on the close of USA on the Dow and SNP. It doesn't look good right now as both of them made new lows. It would be worth a look at the FTSE. We could well look for some confirmation from the movement Monday morning when the FTSE opens.
The ALSI end of day chart does indicate very oversold position with stoch and rsi below 30 and 10 respectfully. Immediate resistance is at the close of 17681 with support at 17160. We could find ourselves challenging 18071 if the open is positive and the market swings bullish.
The low oversold levels on the indicators imply a 200-300 upside in the morning but again lends itself to the sentiment of the US close which was negative. One may like to look at the Asian open to confirm our direction until FTSE opens.
I would consider the LIVE charts as well and seeing as though we closed up on my LIVE charts I conclude that 17426 is 1st level support followed by ultimate support at 17210. 17844 seems a strong resistance level too on the upside.
It certainly warrants waiting for after the open to assess again the market sentiment. Bearing in mind that the end of day chart on the short term indicates a retracement with the medium term still implying probability of downside after a short pull back.
Keep an eye on AngloGold and DRD gold. Anglo American is heading into oversold position as well. and has broken recent support levels. But it may require another 2-3 days before it retraces briefly.
On closer look into DRDGold, the share does look overbought now. It is displaying a well known reversal pattern on a candlestick chart called a Morning Star. It closed on Friday with an upside hammer. There certainlys seems to be strong support at just below 900c.
DRD's old high of around 971c to 989c is set to be the strong resistance. The share's momentum may well fall off here and we may find it having a small retracement back to 692c and find support there again. It is vital to trace the movement in GOLD using the NewGold ETF as a precursor to how DRDgold and other gold derivative shares will perform.
We may only see a slight retracement of 23% to 789c before the momentum in the gold price forces the share onwards and upwards. Likewise with AngloGold. on DRD gold 875c is quite an important support level and would signal that the retracement is in play with potential to move to 789c.
It certainly pays to get access to good training regarding your trading.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za ,
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Update on JSE All Share Index
Update on the JSE All Share
We have been trading a fantastic long on the market this week especially in Gold and gold shares. But the general market also referred to as the All Share Index, has had a significant week of upside.
How did we become aware of the move in the market over the last week? We use our technical analysis of local and some international stock markets. We get an overview of the local stock market using different fundamental and technical indicators. For instance, our position on GOLD from last week was to buy from around the $840 mark and to sell at $880 this week.
Buy understanding some chart patterns, in particular the ascending triangle pattern, we could plot an expected target of $140 possible upside to the Gold price once the gold price broke above $830 last week. This also triggered our positions in gold shares like GoldFields and AngloGold from Monday this week. We have since closed our positions yesterday as we saw on our short analysis that Gold could pull back slightly, likely due to profit taking. So we moved our money off the table as well.
ALSI End of Day Report: we are at the 21 day EMA and we have resistance at 19360 on our LIVE 15 min chart. There is also a double top pattern formation on the ALSI live at the moment which suggests some downside after the nice bull rally we have experienced.
The MACD is about to cross down as well on a LIVE chart with the Stochastic 13 also looking very overbought. All of these types of indicators suggest some sell off in the ALSI 40 index today and tomorrow.
Fundamentally speaking however, the CPI and PPI are being anounced in South Africa this week. CPI was very positive yesterday which will add comfort to the market going higher. Once the interest rate cut which is said to follow next week, this will inflate the local JSE market to the upside.
Keep an eye on Sasol as it may have a pull back to around 26500c over the next few days. Obviously keeping an eye on Brent Crude oil would be a good idea at this point. Well, we keep an eye on it at any point when it concerns our position on Sasol. The two are very much linked to each other.
For more info on learning to assess the market the way we do... go visit www.tradingmoneytree.com and www.newsweek.co.za We have also put together a free basic tutorial about money and investing.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
We have been trading a fantastic long on the market this week especially in Gold and gold shares. But the general market also referred to as the All Share Index, has had a significant week of upside.
How did we become aware of the move in the market over the last week? We use our technical analysis of local and some international stock markets. We get an overview of the local stock market using different fundamental and technical indicators. For instance, our position on GOLD from last week was to buy from around the $840 mark and to sell at $880 this week.
Buy understanding some chart patterns, in particular the ascending triangle pattern, we could plot an expected target of $140 possible upside to the Gold price once the gold price broke above $830 last week. This also triggered our positions in gold shares like GoldFields and AngloGold from Monday this week. We have since closed our positions yesterday as we saw on our short analysis that Gold could pull back slightly, likely due to profit taking. So we moved our money off the table as well.
ALSI End of Day Report: we are at the 21 day EMA and we have resistance at 19360 on our LIVE 15 min chart. There is also a double top pattern formation on the ALSI live at the moment which suggests some downside after the nice bull rally we have experienced.
The MACD is about to cross down as well on a LIVE chart with the Stochastic 13 also looking very overbought. All of these types of indicators suggest some sell off in the ALSI 40 index today and tomorrow.
Fundamentally speaking however, the CPI and PPI are being anounced in South Africa this week. CPI was very positive yesterday which will add comfort to the market going higher. Once the interest rate cut which is said to follow next week, this will inflate the local JSE market to the upside.
Keep an eye on Sasol as it may have a pull back to around 26500c over the next few days. Obviously keeping an eye on Brent Crude oil would be a good idea at this point. Well, we keep an eye on it at any point when it concerns our position on Sasol. The two are very much linked to each other.
For more info on learning to assess the market the way we do... go visit www.tradingmoneytree.com and www.newsweek.co.za We have also put together a free basic tutorial about money and investing.
Financial & Investment Workshops, ebooks & financial freedom @ www.newsweek.co.za
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